# Projection Sensitivity: ±1SE Coefficient Bands

Regime strain (predicted CA/GDP deviation from EMU mean) using within-EMU Z deviation coefficients.

Point estimate uses baseline coefficients. Bands shift all Z_dev coefficients by ±1 standard error.

## 2040 Strain with Uncertainty Bands

| Country | Z1_dev | Point Est. | Lower (−1SE) | Upper (+1SE) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| FRA | -0.312 | -5.82 | -15.91 | +4.27 |
| FIN | -0.019 | -5.19 | -5.80 | -4.57 |
| ITA | +0.700 | -4.02 | -26.62 | +18.58 |
| DEU | +0.157 | -3.18 | -8.26 | +1.90 |
| BEL | -0.217 | -2.76 | -9.78 | +4.26 |
| PRT | +0.265 | -2.61 | -11.16 | +5.94 |
| GRC | +0.408 | -2.00 | -15.17 | +11.17 |
| NLD | -0.343 | -1.45 | -12.54 | +9.64 |
| AUT | +0.127 | -0.78 | -4.88 | +3.32 |
| ESP | +0.482 | -0.32 | -15.88 | +15.25 |
| SVN | +0.128 | -0.01 | -4.15 | +4.12 |
| EST | +0.044 | +0.94 | -0.49 | +2.36 |
| LVA | +0.043 | +1.11 | -0.27 | +2.48 |
| LTU | +0.082 | +1.81 | -0.82 | +4.45 |
| MLT | +0.212 | +1.87 | -4.97 | +8.71 |
| IRL | -0.718 | +2.65 | -20.54 | +25.83 |
| LUX | -0.497 | +5.02 | -11.05 | +21.09 |
| SVK | -0.060 | +6.47 | +4.52 | +8.42 |
| CYP | -0.479 | +8.27 | -7.19 | +23.74 |

## Full Projection (Point Estimates)

| Country | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2060 |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| FRA | -0.58 | -4.79 | -5.82 | -3.97 | -0.57 |
| FIN | -1.01 | -6.98 | -5.19 | -0.05 | +2.59 |
| ITA | -1.48 | -1.81 | -4.02 | -9.63 | -9.51 |
| DEU | -1.00 | +0.53 | -3.18 | -4.66 | +0.34 |
| BEL | -0.21 | -2.01 | -2.76 | -1.25 | +1.53 |
| PRT | -0.83 | -0.90 | -2.61 | -5.73 | -6.17 |
| GRC | -2.33 | -1.23 | -2.00 | -5.08 | -6.85 |
| NLD | +1.18 | -1.59 | -1.45 | -0.51 | +4.80 |
| AUT | +0.10 | +1.44 | -0.78 | -3.16 | -0.62 |
| ESP | +0.07 | +1.38 | -0.32 | -6.16 | -9.89 |
| SVN | +3.56 | +2.35 | -0.01 | -1.61 | -3.80 |
| EST | +0.04 | -0.51 | +0.94 | +3.69 | +1.78 |
| LVA | +1.60 | +0.60 | +1.11 | +4.42 | +5.02 |
| LTU | +1.28 | +0.84 | +1.81 | +5.05 | +7.77 |
| MLT | -4.64 | -3.16 | +1.87 | +5.97 | +0.93 |
| IRL | +2.67 | +0.81 | +2.65 | +3.27 | +1.74 |
| LUX | -0.17 | +4.30 | +5.02 | +3.85 | +4.07 |
| SVK | +4.29 | +6.02 | +6.47 | +7.06 | +2.22 |
| CYP | -2.54 | +4.72 | +8.27 | +8.51 | +4.63 |

## Extremes by Decade

| Decade | Max Deficit (Country) | Max Surplus (Country) | Total Spread |
|---:|:---|:---|---:|
| 2020 | -4.64 (MLT) | +4.29 (SVK) | 8.93 |
| 2030 | -6.98 (FIN) | +6.02 (SVK) | 12.99 |
| 2040 | -5.82 (FRA) | +8.27 (CYP) | 14.09 |
| 2050 | -9.63 (ITA) | +8.51 (CYP) | 18.13 |
| 2060 | -9.89 (ESP) | +7.77 (LTU) | 17.66 |

*Coefficients from within-EMU Z deviation regression (N=447). Z projections from UN WPP medium variant. Bands represent coefficient uncertainty only, not demographic projection uncertainty.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*